It was a down week for markets as Fed-loosening bets were unwound. Several members of the Fed indicated a “higher peak” than anticipated; Atlanta Fed Chief Bostic cited January’s hot jobs data as an indicator that it is too early to claim victory in the fight against inflation. In Crypto, regulatory pressure mounts as it “kraks” down on staking (more in Cryptocurrency News below), pressuring U.S. banks to cut ties with crypto firms.
SPX -1.11%, DJIA -0.17% and NASDAQ -2.41% amidst “hawkish” comments from the Fed throughout the week. BTC -5.02% and ETH -6.97%, pulled back below $22,000, and the latter broke through the lower bound of its rising channel, falling below $1,550.
Looking on-chain, self-custody remains the most common means of retaining Bitcoin for traders and HODLers alike. More supply of Bitcoin continues to move to self-custody as opposed to exchanges, with approximately $416.5 billion of Bitcoin not currently traded on any exchanges. Compared to the $29.2 billion in the marketplace, this indicates 14.26X as many coins off exchanges as there are on them (@santimentfeed).
- Kraken shutters its U.S. crypto-staking service in response to the U.S. SEC investigation, agreeing to pay a $30 million settlement. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged the firm for the unregistered sale of securities through its staking-as-a-service program. The news caused liquid staking tokens, the decentralized alternative, to rally.
Our View: the news received negative backlash from the crypto community, with Coinbase’s CEO commenting that the U.S. SEC is headed down a “terrible path” if it bans crypto staking for retail customers. If regulations head towards that direction, we could see staking flows turning to offshore markets or on-chain alternatives.
- Ethereum testnet processes first ETH staking withdrawals. The upgrade on the Zhejiang testnet was the first of three dress rehearsals for the much anticipated Shanghai hard fork.
Our View: with the anticipation for the Shanghai upgrade, we can expect increased price volatility around the event. Some expect it to encourage more staking (stickier prices), while others expect ETH to drop as stakers rush to withdraw their long-held funds – what do you think?
- Binance.com temporarily suspends USD bank transfers. A Binance spokesperson noted that just 0.01% of active monthly users use USD bank transfers. Binance.US is not affected by the suspension.
Our View: it is not clear why USD bank transfers were suspended, but this could be linked to their U.S. banking partner, Signature Bank, increasing USD transaction minimum to $100,000 in late January as it reduces its exposure to digital-asset markets.
- Genesis reaches an agreement in principle with DCG and key creditors. The proposed resolution includes DCG exchanging its $1.1 billion promissory note, due in 2032, for convertible preferred stock to be issued by DCG, refinancing its existing 2023 term loans through a new, junior secured term loan in two tranches, and selling its subsidiary Genesis’ crypto trading business and lending arm. In addition, Gemini will fund “up to $100 million more for Earn users as part of the plan.”
Our best strategy for medium to long term investment is to take at least 1-3 years in Moderate Portfolio because it has a good defense with 50% Fixed Deposit , 30% In DCD and 20% in Staking because we still have potential return in DCD and Staking especially in BTC.
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